The four-tier 2009 National Basketball Association playoffs have begun and here’s how the eight first-round match-ups, all of which are best-of-seven affairs, will likely go.

EAST
1-Cleveland (66-16) vs. 8-Detroit (39-43)

Forecast – Cavaliers over Pistons, 4-0

Soon-to-be crowned NBA Most Valuable Player LeBron James exploded for 38 points, eight rebounds and seven assists during Cleveland’s 102-84 shellacking of Detroit in the series opener at the Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavs’ other All-Star, playmaker Mo Williams, contributed a dozen points and four assists.

On Wednesday, Apr. 22 (Manila time), the Wine City squad will again host Game Two and should be travelling to Motor City on Saturday for Game Three with a 2-0 record.

This series could be short as a sweep is on the horizon.

Without their court general of old (Chauncey Billups, who was shipped to Denver last November), the Pistons – the only team among the 16 playoff participants with a losing record at 39-43 – have fallen into a playoff also-ran instead of an NBA championship contender.

High-priced ($20-plus million salary) but enigmatic All-Star Allen Iverson, the Pistons’ 6-foot combo guard acquired in the Billups swap, has a sore back and is out of the entire playoffs.

2-Boston (62-20) vs. 7-Chicago (41-41)

Forecast – Celtics over Bulls, 4-2

Already without injured Kevin Garnett for the playoffs, the road to an NBA title repeat by Boston became even more rocky when the Green dropped a 105-103 overtime decision to upstart Chicago in their series opener at the TD Banknorth Garden.

Foxy rookie playmaker Derrick Rose got 36 points, 11 assists and four boards in his playoff debut to help the Bulls wrest home-court advantage from the Celtics, who are in a must-win situation when they host Game Two Tuesday, Apr. 21.

In addition to the 6-3 Rose, the leading NBA Rookie of the Year candidate with 16.8 ppg during the regular wars (second among the league’s newcomers behind Memphis guard O.J. Mayo’s 18.5 ppg), the Bulls also have youngsters Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas (16 points in Game One) and Joakim Noah (11 points and 17 rebounds in his postseason debut) and veteran swingman John Salmons to offset the absence of double-figure scorer Luol Deng (stress fracture in his right tibia, out since Feb. 28).

Despite the Game One upset, I still like the chances of Boston to move past Chicago into the second round. In the series opener, Celts guard Rajon Rondo put together 29 points, nine reebies and seven dimes and All-Star forward Paul Pierce knocked in 23 points but All-Star guard Ray Allen was held to four markers on 1-for-12 field shooting.

3-Orlando (59-23) vs. 6-Philadelphia (41-41)

Forecast – Magic over 76ers, 4-1

Orlando starters Rashard Lewis (17.7 ppg) and Hedo Turkoglu were hurting entering the postseason, but the Magic have Superman, Dwight Howard. The 6-11 center topped the NBA in rebounding (13.8 rpg) and blocked shots (2.92 bpg) and hit at a 20.6-point clip during the regulars.

Orlando got the boost with the trade acquisition of Rafer Alston from Houston in mid-February following the season-ending shoulder injury to All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson.

Philly is built around high-wire act Andre Iguodala and playmaker de luxe Andre Miller but the team would have been much more formidable if expensive frontliner Elton Brand, who left the LA Clippers last summer for a lucrative five-year free-agent deal with the 76ers worth $80 million, were available. The 6-8 Brand dislocated his right shoulder last Dec. 17, underwent surgery on Feb. 9 and was gone for the season.

4-Atlanta (47-35) vs. 5-Miami (43-39)

Forecast – Heat over Hawks, 4-2

This is one of our two Upset Specials in the first-round playoffs.

Atlanta has home-court advantage in the series and beat Miami, 3-1, during their head-to-head regular duel.

However, I pick the Heat to pull this one off simply because NBA scoring titlist Dwyane Wade (30.2 ppg) has been virtually unstoppable and playing on a MVP-type level after a pair of injury-filled seasons.

It also was a nice follow-up to Wade’s 2008 Beijing stint when the 6-4 megastar led the U.S. Olympic team to the gold medal over Spain and topped the all-NBA unit in scoring.

WEST
1-LA Lakers (65-17) vs. 8-Utah (48-34)

Forecast – Lakers over Jazz, 4-1

Everyone figures the Lakers will rely heavily on veterans Kobe bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher, but what scares the opposition is the availability of young 7-foot center Andrew Bynum, who’s back in action after missing 32 straight games in the entire months of February and March and early April.

Bynum also missed the entire 2008 playoffs where he could have been a factor in the Lakers’ losing NBA Finals stint against Boston.

2-Denver (54-28) vs. 7-New Orleans (49-33)

Forecast – Nuggets over Hornets, 4-2

Denver has a deep bench and owns home-court advantage in a playoff series for the first time since 1988. Underachieving New Orleans, with hulking center Tyson Chandler recovering from ankle woes, limped into the playoffs with six losses in their final eight regular assignments.
3-San Antonio (54-28) vs. 6-Dallas (50-32)

Forecast – Spurs over Mavericks, 4-2

Dallas stole home-court advantage by downing San Antonio, 105-97, in the series opener behind 25 points by forward Josh Howard, 19 points and eight rebounds from All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki and a dozen markers from top NBA Sixth Award candidate Jason Terry, the league’s highest-scoring reserve with 19.6 ppg.
Veteran Mavs playmaker Jason Kidd still has some tricks left in his arsenal but I continue to believe in the Spurs despite health issues that hound them. Aging star Tim Duncan, who had 27 points and nine boards in Game One, has been plagued by troublesome knees and momentum-swinger Manu Ginobili is sidelined by an ankle ailment.

San Antone can’t afford to lose Game Two today (Apr. 21) on its home floor if it intends to beat Dallas and reach the second round.

4-Portland (54-28) vs. 5-Houston (53-29)

Forecast – Rockets over Trail Blazers, 4-2

This is our other Upset Special.

In the postseason for the first time since 2003, thanks to the superb play of All-Star guard Brandon Roy (22.6 ppg), Portland entered the series against Houston with the home-court edge.

However, the Rockets got the better of the young Trail Blazers in two of three regular games and have since wrested home-court advantage as unheralded guard Aaron Brooks got 27 points and seven assists and All-Star center Yao Ming had 24 points and nine rebounds in an easy 108-81 victory in Portland in Game One.

Houston has overcome the midseason loss of chronically knee-troubled Tracy McGrady (who has never made it past the first-round playoffs in his 12-year pro career) with solid performances from All-Star center Yao Ming (19.7 ppg, 9.9 rpg) and much-behaved Ron Artest.

The second-round match-ups will have the winner of the No. 1 vs. No. 8 series playing the winner of the No. 4 vs. No. 5 series and the winner of the No. 2 vs. No. 7 going up against the winner of the No. 3 vs. No. 6 series.
From where we sit, it will be Cleveland vs. Orlando in the East finals and the Lakers vs. San Antonio in a West finals rematch.

For the Lawrence O’Brien championship trophy, make mine Kobe Bryant and the LA Lakers over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in six games in another marquee finals match-up that should give the NBA bigwigs one reason to smile amidst uncertain financial times back home.