“There will be a Final 4, ngayon sure na ‘yon,” declared Adamson University head coach Leo Austria, after his Falcons defeated the Ateneo De Manila 62-46 on the last day of the eliminations. That huge win by Austria’s side prevented a season sweep by the league-leading Blue Eagles and a stepladder semifinal. Here are the matches for the Final 4 this Thursday at the Smart Araneta Coliseum: The Ateneo versus Santo Tomas at 12:00 noon, then Adamson versus Far Eastern University at 3:00 PM. There will be separate ticketing for each game. The Ateneo and Adamson hold twice-to-beat advantages.

Ateneo (13-1) versus UST (8-6)

This marks the second time in the last four years that the Blue Eagles will be facing Coach Pido Jarencio and the Growling Tigers in the Final 4. The last time around was in 2009 when the Ateneo walloped UST and went on to win their second straight UAAP Crown against the University of the East, behind superstars Rabeh Al-Hussaini, Nonoy Baclao and Jai Reyes.

There has been a sub-rivalry of sorts between the Jesuit-led Ateneo and the Dominican-run UST since the Tigers beat the Blue Eagles in the 2006 Finals. It has not yet abated. Some fans have been longing for a championship rematch. Unfortunately for the UST side, their squad has not looked anywhere near as good as that 2006 title team. This current UST roster is undoubtedly talented, but it simply does not have the depth of that 2006 championship squad. Their starters this year can hang with the best of the UAAP, led by MVP contenders Jeric Fortuna and African import Karim Abdul. Their bench however hardly scares anybody. “Hirap ang UST kapag umupo na starters nila,” noted TV Panel analyst TJ Manotoc in one game.

That same remark was said of the Ateneo bench throughout the first round. Widely recognized as having the best starting unit in the UAAP, led by MVP frontrunners Greg Slaughter and Kiefer Ravena, and veteran Nico Salva, the bench was a source of concern in the first round. “At some point we will have to get some production from our bench,” admitted head coach Norman Black in one earlier interview. Except for that last game against Adamson however, the Ateneo bench has stepped up throughout the second round, led by guard Tonino Gonzaga and center Justin Chua. Gonzaga had his best game this season against their archrival La Salle in the second round where he scored a season-high 12 points. He was one of the few bright spots for the Ateneo in that Adamson game. Chua for his part had his best game against UST in the second round as well, getting 18 points and 11 rebounds.

Black is ready to hunker back down to business. “We’ll be ready this Thursday. We won’t be taking any days off and we’ll get back to practice right away,” he said in one post-game interview. The Ateneo has handed UST its back end in both of their elimination games. In the second round, the Ateneo had so thoroughly dominated UST that Black had the luxury of fielding in the end of his entire bench with still nearly seven minutes left in that game.

One thing opponents have always dreaded throughout the Norman Black era is facing the Ateneo after the Blue Eagles have just come off a setback. Without a doubt, the Ateneo will beat UST and return to the Finals to defend their title.

Adamson (10-4) versus FEU (9-5)

Adamson finally faced the Ateneo in a major tournament championship in last year’s Philippine Collegiate Champions League. Taking Game 1 of the Best-2-out of-3 Finals, the Falcons looked ready to finally get over the hump against a team that at that time they had not beaten for the longest time in the UAAP. Then the Blue Eagles simply summoned the winners within, and took the next two games handily and kept their PCCL Crown. In testament to the good will between the two teams, Austria and the core of his Falcons combined with Black and the core of the Blue Eagles to represent the Philippines in the students’ champions’ tournament in Hong Kong. After that, many basketball watchers declared that Adamson would be a Season 74 powerhouse, and had a good chance of making it to the Finals for the first time in the Leo Austria era.

Throughout the first round, these Falcons lived up to those expectations, giving the Ateneo all it could handle on opening weekend. Then things got a little iffy in the second round, with bad losses to UST (led by 17, lost by 16) and FEU (a team they beat by 17 in the first round). They barely survived a young La Salle squad, blowing a 22-point lead and having to depend on a last-second clock-beating jumper by Alex Nuyles to pull out a victory. That was all forgotten however with their huge win over the Ateneo. “Lahat naman ng masamang laro nakakalimutan na kapag may magandang panalo,” said Austria in one conversation. Now they will see if FEU really does love them for setting up the Final 4. “Galit-galit na muna dito siguro,” Austria said with a bit of a grin.

FEU is another team that many watchers said would contend for the title this season. This after all is essentially the same squad that met the Ateneo in the Finals last season. These Tamaraws were totally outplayed by the Ateneo in last year’s finale and are dying to exact some payback. They need to get back to the Finals first though, and standing in their way is Adamson. “Gusto din naming makabalik sa Finals siempre, pero Final 4 muna tayo,” said FEU head coach Bert Flores.

Although both team split their regular season matches, it is the Tamaraws who have played better in the second round. Their ball movement, extra passes, rebounding and overall team defense and shot selection have improved. Terrence Romeo, the hotshot guard who cost FEU at least three crucial games with his wild tendencies, has settled down and is playing MVP-level basketball in Round 2. With reigning MVP Ryan Roose Garcia and 6-foot-6 MVP contender Aldrech Ramos in tow, these are match-up problems for the slightly smaller Falcons. “Matangkad kasi sina Romeo at Garcia for guys alternating at 1 and 2 on the floor, and both are great scorers, kaya mahirap tapatan one-on-one, lalo si Garcia,” said one long-time talent scout.

Austria will have to get his boys to play a game as perfect as they played against the Ateneo to ensure that this match will end in one game. The key to victory for Adamson will be Alex Nuyles’s overall play against the perimeter defense of FEU. The plays have to go through Nuyles. FEU however has the talent and the momentum to force a winner-take-all match. If this goes to a second game, it becomes a 50-50 proposition. The Falcons need to end this in Game 1 because the Tamaraws can return to the Finals if this goes to Game 2.