The main storyline for this year’s NCAA is if the Red Lions of San Beda can capture an NCAA triple crown. Not long after their win in season 83, a considerable majority of the basketball community have made a foregone conclusion that the Red Lions will indeed achieve a three-peat come season 84. However, their relative underachievement in this summer’s preseason tourneys plus a few major developments has exponentially increased the number of doubters in the Red Lion’s campaign to annex a third straight NCAA championship. Although I see this view as unfounded, the skepticism of most makes for an engaging discussion on who then will stop the Red Lions of Mendiola. If not SBC, then who?

The Red Lions will be bringing back a near intact lineup, losing only two players in Yousif Aljamal and Raymund Maggay. Pending the Mancom’s eligibility approval,

Aljamal’s spot will eventually be taken by former NCAA Juniors ROY-MVP Jake Pascual. Back to lead the Red Lions will be Nigerian behemoth Sam Ekwe, mohawk-sporting Ogie Menor, stone-walled Jay-R Taganas, crafty pointguard Borgie Hermida and incoming King Lion Pong Escobal. Production will not slack of when the subs come in as Bam Gamalinda and Garvo Lanete will provide the much needed scoring punch off the bench. The Red Lions chances will greatly depend on these two as this combo has been making great waves in the preseason tourneys. With this lineup, my belief in a grand slam has and will never waver. Anything less than a championship will be catastrophic.

In the remote possibility that the Red Lions do not win it all, then who will? Here are the contenders to the throne, in order of likelihood to upset the three-peat seeking Red Lions:

I expect the return to prominence of the SSC Golden Stags this season. SSC will have the only legitimate matchup against SBC’s man mountain, Sam Ekwe in Jason Ballesteros. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Ballesteros has improved leaps and bounds from a tall and lanky cager to an interior presence for the Golden Stags. He will be joined in the frontline by highly versatile forward Gilbert Bulawan, rookie Anthony Bringas and the vastly improved Dave Najorda. The wings will be manned by Jimbo Aquino and PBL veteran Jim Viray. Manning the point will be the wily John Raymundo and the steady hands of Franz Delgado. This is a team that comes closest to matching up well from the Mendiola dribblers. Their recent win over the Red Lions in the Filoil Preseason Invitational is a concrete manifestation of this, which has catapulted them to the top of the NCAA food chain, significantly reducing the Red Lion’s aura of invincibility in the coming NCAA wars.

The MIT Cardinals have been a fixture in the Final Four for the past couple of years, and I don’t see any reason why they’ll stop doing that this season 84. Led by last year’s MVP Kelvin Dela Pena, this team will figure prominently in the race to the Finals. Aside from Kelvin, the Cardinals will bank on the fast improving and maturing Jonathan Banal, the perimeter sniping of Ian Mazo and the versatility of big man Neil Pascual. They also have good recruits in former NCAA Juniors MVP Allan Mangahas, Randolph Soriano and an additional big man in Mark Sarangay. This team will be able to matchup with the Red Lions from the perimeter, but with the presence of Ekwe, the interior will be the Red Lion’s domain. This is the reason why I marginally rank them below the Golden Stags.

The CSJL Knights will be led by sweet-shooting RJ Jazul, the fast maturing Dino Daa and the high leaping Rey Guevarra, with a slew of quick and pesky guards in Reymar Gutilban, John Melegrito and Rey Dangcal. To be honest, this team is not as strong on paper as the Red Lions, Golden Stags and Cardinals, even the Heavy Bombers. But I expect the Knights to make the Final Four yet again. What this team lacks in manpower, they more than make up with one of college basketball’s best minds in the person of Louie Alas. The Knights have been contenders in the NCAA wars for the past couple of years, even making the Finals last year with a less than stellar cast. That is how good Coach Alas is. But everybody knows that by now. They will continue to exceed expectations this year. But personally, I think they will come up short in their quest for the title this year. Final Four? Yes. Finals? Not this year.

The Heavy Bombers of JRU will bring back the solid core of last year’s Mythical 5 member Marvin Hayes, Jayson Nocom, JR Sena, Marc Cagoco, John Wilson and Maui Pradas. The question here is if this core has grown and matured together enough to make a run for an NCAA diadem and end its own decades-long title drought. This season will also be the debut season of John Njei, a wingman who can literally jump right out of the building. He will probably play all 5 positions on defense but his offensive production will be limited to what his athleticism can muster. Basketball “mirons” believe that if this team actually starts playing basketball (they have the the manpower and talent to do so), they would be the darkhorse of this year’s tourney. That being said, with the emergence of the Cardinals and Stags, I see JRU as a team that will barely miss a trip to Season 84’s Final Four.

The CSB Blazers made an offseason coaching change with the appointment of Gee Abanilla as their new head coach, with the departure of Caloy Garcia to the pros. Gee Abanilla has been an assistant to Red Bull’s Yeng Guiao, easily one of Philippine basketball’s best basketball minds and a great developer of individual hoops talent. The question here is if Coach Abanilla will be able to do the same for his players, enhance their individual abilities to better their chances as a team. Basketball pundits also expect improved conditioning from this team, courtesy of training from former Green Archer and ex-pro Mon Jose. This team’s chances will hinge on the perimeter consistency of Garri Sevilla, the long-awaited coming of age of former UAAP junior standouts Jacob Manlapaz and William Johnston, the playmaking maturity of Angelo Montecastro, the inside presence of Harvey Porras the inside-outside versatility of Archie David and the leadership of the returning Jeff Morial. Yes, all that has to happen for this team to have a realistic chance to go far this year. In my honest opinion, this team will be a force to reckon with… in the coming years.

After a one year hiatus from the NCAA, the chances of the PCU Dolphins of making waves in their return to collegiate basketball can hardly be ascertained. They have gone under the radar since their suspension. Word from the grapevine is that Harbour Centre’s Beau Belga will be back to banner this squad. Yes, the same Beau Belga who nearly extended SBC’s title drought with that last second shot from the keyhole. They will be a scary opponent, capable of pulling upsets here and there. But can one PBL and SEAG veteran carry this team on his shoulders to a championship for what could be the Dolphins’ last foray in the NCAA? Don’t keep your fingers crossed. The chances of this happening are next to nil. Seriously, this is one instance that I’d hate to be wrong.

Safe to say, the UPHDS Altas will be on rebuilding mode this season. Save for a few surprises here and there, I don’t see this team competing much this season against the NCAA’s perceived heavyweights. This team will be a Mike Kong-Ronald Reyes team, much like the Khiel Misa-Fritz Bauzon ‘06-07 Altas. Well, not exactly as explosive as the latter tandem, but in the same perimeter sniping mold. This may amount to squat in the Altas’ season 84 campaign, but watch out for Andy Mejos. My basketball instincts tell me that this guard will turn heads around this season. At best, this is my vile attempt to generate interest on this team’s chances for this season.

Check back with me after the NCAA season and let us altogether see if I have the makings of a basketball Nostradamus or just one of your next door know-it-all basketball shmuck.