The only thing I can predict about the coming Universities Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) basketball season is that it will be unpredictable. In the past few years, one can easily say which team was favored to win the title, or which schools would make it to the Final Four.

But not this year, for one, I don’t think any school enjoys the distinction of being the heavy favorite this 2008. Unlike last season, where the University of the East Warriors were everybody’s top choice, there is no team in the UAAP today that has a clear advantage. Not UE, which figured in the finals in at least two pre-season tournaments. Not even defending champions De La Salle University Green Archers.

Even the top four squads will be tough to forecast. I can see six schools with almost equal chances of landing in the Final Four this season. It’s going to be a great UAAP year, with a very balanced competition among six of the eight teams.

The Warriors will certainly try to bounce back this year after a painful journey in 2007, when after sweeping the elimination round, they absorbed two straight set-backs in the hands of the Green Archers in the finals. They lost some key players, especially Mark Borboran, Mark Fampulme and Kelvin Gregorio. But Marcy Arellano, James Martinez and Elmer Espiritu will be back for Coach Dindo Pumaren, along with a rejuvenated support cast headed by Hans Thiele, Paul Lee, Narciso Llagas and Fhadzmir Bandaying. UE enjoys a deep bench with several outside snipers. Superior conditioning anchors the Warriors’ vaunted pressing defense and up-tempo offense. I also think they play better as a team now, with several key players accepting a supporting role to the more senior campaigners. Its weakness is the post game, with no legitimate post player this season. I think UE is a shoo-in in the top two spots.

DLSU will be missing TY Tang and Cholo Villanueva badly this year. These two had been very instrumental in the Archers’ magical season in 2007. Without them, the road towards a repeat of last year’s triumph will be bumpy. Fortunately for them, JV Casio and Rico Maierhofer are still around to carry the cudgels for the green and white. But they will be needing more support from the likes of PJ Barua, James Mangahas, PJ Walsham and Simon Atkins. Promising rookies like LA Revilla, Hyram Bagatsing and Joshua Webb should give La Salle a shot in the arm. The offense of the Archers will still be among the best in the league. They do have a lot of gunners and slashers. Of course, the full-court press of the Archers will remain as dreaded as ever. Coach Franz Pumaren’s experience will always be the x-factor. The Archers’ Achilles’ heel is the point guard position, a huge void left by Tang. Atkins must step up big time this year for DLSU to defend its crown. DLSU might end the elims in the 2 or 3 spot.

Far Eastern University seems to be the dark horse this year after very impressive stints during the pre-season jousts. The Tamaraws displayed tremendous energy and efficiency in most of their games, even besting other top collegiate squads from the UAAP and NCAA. Coach Glenn Capacio has done a stellar job in forming a hard fighting crew with a balanced offense and solid interior defense. There are no legit superstars in this team with new players stepping up each game. JR Cawaling and Mac Baracael lead a new breed of Tamaraws that might just steal the show from their more illustrious rivals. Their weakness however is the lack of legitimate big men. But there also lies their strength as most can play multiple positions. FEU should land at the 3 or 4 spot after two rounds.

The Ateneo Blue Eagles are fresh from winning the Nike Summer League and a rigorous training in the US. They are likewise beefed up by the most sought after high school cagers last year – Ryan Buenafe, Nico Salva, Justin Chua and Vince Burke. Firepower will be provided by the sweet-shooting Chris Tiu, Eric Salamat, Kirk Long and Buenafe. But the Eagles need to muscle up inside with only Nonoy Baclao as their consistent big man. Raba Al-Hussaini must step up the way Ford Arao did last year. At 6’8”, he should be the most dominant center in the UAAP by now. I think much of the Eagles’ chances this year will depend on how Rabeh performs, and on who else will step up among their big men. Long, Salamat, Jai Reyes and Yuri Escueta must also do a better job at the point position. Coach Norman Black will have a luxury of players to rotate with at the wing position. If Ateneo’s outside artillery is in synch, it will be difficult to clip the Eagles’ wings. It won’t be a walk in the park for ADMU, but the 4th spot should be attainable.

A healthy University of Santo Tomas squad is a dangerous squad. I have always regarded the Growling Tigers as the team to beat in 2008 until a series of injuries plagued the multi-titled school early this year. They might struggle during the early stages this season. But UST will be roaring back just in time for the Final Four. The Tigers have the best post player in the UAAP in Jervy Cruz. In fact, he may be the only legitimate post player in the league this year. This is the main weapon of UST. No other squad can boast of a post game like UST’s. Moreover, the Tigers have a line-up that’s the envy of most college teams. Imagine having wing players above 6’2” who can score inside and outside, like Kashim Mirza, Mark Canlas, Carlos Fenequito, Phil Allera and Dylan Ababou. Japs Cuan is very effective at the point position. Chester Taylor is a nightmare to defend because he can operate well in the paint and also hit from the perimeter. Coach Pido Jarencio enjoys a very deep bench with a lot of experience. UST is both an offensive and defensive machine that’s hard to contain. If the Tigers get healthy early, they might even duplicate their feat in 2006.

The Adamson Falcons are slowly emerging as one of the teams to watch out for this season. After forgettable performances early this year, Coach Leo Austria has brought life back to the Falcons, as evidenced by their superb games in the Fil-Oil Invitational Cup where they even figured in the semis. Like a phoenix rising from its ashes, the Falcons came back strong in the latter part of the tournament, upsetting UAAP giants FEU and Ateneo. With spitfire Jerick Canada, Alex Nuyles, Paul Gonzalgo, Mark Agustin and rookie center Mike Galinato, Adamson might just pull off some surprises this year. However, I think the best that they can reach is the No. 5 spot.

Both the National University Bulldogs and the University of the Philippines Maroons will find it an uphill climb to make it to the Final Four this season. They just don’t have the same caliber of rosters to measure swords with the other six. But both Coaches Manny Dandan and Aboy Castro are expected to lead their charges to the battle with the objective of gaining respect from the other UAAP teams. Expect UP and NU to fight hard each game and give the more seeded teams a scare. NU still has veteran players Edwin Asoro and Raymund Aguilar that can engage with their opponents’ front line, and an explosive court general in Jonathan Jahnke. As for UP, its young but animated cast led by sharp-shooters Migs De Asis and Martin Reyes, forward Woody Co, and the cat-quick Mike Gamboa, improving on last year’s 0-14 card is almost a done deal.

This should be the most exciting UAAP season in at least five years, with five schools hoping to take home the prestigious plum. I think it’s anybody’s ballgame among UE, La Salle, FEU, Ateneo and UST, with none of them having a clear advantage. It should boil down to who’s the healthiest and mentally toughest down the stretch.