After some two months of bash-it-out hoops action, the real season begins this weekend the UAAP Season 72 Final 4 unfolds. Four teams, each with a unique story for this season slug it out in the most popular and competitive collegiate basketball tournament in the country.

Ateneo De Manila versus Santo Tomas

Reigning champion Ateneo De Manila is the overwhelming favorite to wrap this match-up up in one game and march straight into the Season 72 Finals. At 13-1, the Blue Eagles of head coach Norman Black have won 10 straight games and might have easily swept the season, were it not for that freak loss to State University in the first round.

As for head coach Pido Jarencio’s Tigers, there isn’t much growling lately over at the Espana-based squad. UST was at a respectable 4-3 after Round 1, and then promptly imploded in the second round, losing their last four assignments, including a supposedly no-pressure game against University of the East to finish at 6-8. These Tigers might be the only team in the last 10 years to enter the Final 4 with a losing record, not exactly something to excite any UST fan.

Ateneo did not look too mighty in the off-season, not even completing their stints in the Nike Summer League and the Fil Oil Flying V Preseason Cup. They did not awe or shock anybody, and even struggled through some games against lower-ranked teams. When they up and left for their annual training junket to North America and did not bother to finish their summer stints, it only reinforced the general feeling that the Blue Eagles had lost their edge. UST for its part was an enigma in the off-season, putting in their transfer recruits along with their younger players to form a mish-mash team that competed in the Nike Summer League. Needless to say this team did not exactly impress anybody over the summer.

Fortunately for Ateneo fans, Black simply played possum as he usually has over the summer. Ateneo promptly cut up the opposition throughout all of Season 72. They swept their season series versus Santo Tomas. Round 1 saw Ateneo plastering UST behind the 20 points of Eman Monfort in a runaway win. Round 2 was a struggle but the more patient and better disciplined Blue Eagles still outlasted the Tigers this time with a career game of 21 points from Kirk Long.

One interesting sidelight here is that Smart Gilas mainstay Dylan Ababou was declared the most valuable player for Season 72. Ababou averaged over 18 points per game to lead the tournament, and his overall individual statistics were simply the best in this field this year. He edged out Rabeh Al-Hussaini the Season 71 MVP who was hoping to repeat this year. Unfortunately for Al-Hussaini he had some games this season where his stats were less than glowing. Since the UAAP decided to scrap any form of voting altogether this season, stats decided everything. For the first time in a long time, the UAAP also proclaimed the MVP winner after the eliminations, instead of during the Finals as was the custom. It should be fun to see how Ababou and Al-Hussaini respond to their MVP rivalry in the Final 4.

Ateneo will stick to its systems-oriented game plan while UST will live and die with its freestyle play. Al-Hussaini will be the only pure box-to-box low post player in this series with Nonoy Baclao serving as the defensive back. Ateneo will have its usual egalitarian perimeter game anchored on the shooting of Jai Reyes and Eric Salamat, to go with Ryan Buenafe and Kirk Long wherever needed. Ateneo will have to do without super sub Nico Salva, who has been suspended for throwing a rabbit punch into Jenz Knuttel’s gut in their last elimination game.

UST will have the best player in the league in Ababou operating every which way, with Kazhim Mirza serving as his super sidekick. Chris Camus is the best thing UST has to a serviceable post player. Jeric Fortuna and Clark Bautista will once again be asked to masquerade as true pointguards. The X Factor for the Tigers could be rookie Jeric Teng, who is playing a ton of minutes and giving pretty consistent production for the Tigers.

In then end however, in the pressure cooker that is the Final 4, Ateneo will end this quickly. Their patience, intelligence and discipline should be more than enough to upend the feisty but underachieving Tigers.

Far Eastern University versus University of the East

Talk about contrasting fortunes. FEU wound up second seeded at 12-2, but have had a monumental struggle throughout the second round. UE on the other hand is at 10-4 after going only 4-3 in the first round. Head coach Lawrence Chongson’s Red Warriors have won all but one game in the second round, including a convincing 15-point bashing of the Tamaraws.

Suddenly all of the preseason hype about being the team to beat in Seaosn 72 was beginning to sound exactly as it was, nothing but hype. True, the Tamaraws are winning. But for a team that was supposed to be a powerhouse, that was supposed to run right through this field, they certainly haven’t done much of that, especially in the second round.

Further adding high drama over at Morayta are reports that superstar guard Mark Barroca has not been reporting to practice and has also reportedly left the varsity quarters for unknown reasons. Barroca has been under intense scrutiny for the huge drop in his play in the second round. After averaging over 16 points and seven assists per game in Round 1, he went down to just over 12 points and nearly five assists per game in Round 2. Team captain JR Cawaling has also had a drop in production from Round 1 going into Round 2, although not quite as noticeable as Barroca’s case.

One might be tempted to point to the fact that the two might be burned out by their various playing commitments including that for the Smart Gilas national team. While that may sound plausible, the same cannot be said for another Smart Gilas / FEU mainstay: center Aldrech Ramos seems none the worse for wear as he finished third overall in the MVP standings as the only player to average a double-double throughout Season 72.

While things seem to be unraveling for the host school, things are looking up for their university belt neighbors. UE is on one heck of a streak, winning their last five games of the elimination round. Paul Lee, Elmer Espiritu and Pari Llagas have taken on leadership roles to stabilize this relatively young team. Rudy Linganay, Paul Zamar, Raffy Reyes, Lucas Tagarda have become akin to a swarm of hornets, diminutive but packing a lot of sting. Val Acuna has been inconsistent but has managed to nail big shots in critical moments, as he did versus UP in their Round 1 encounter, and FEU in Round 2.

UE has gone to its strengths – copious amounts of running gears that have fueled the best transition attack in the tournament, quickness and an ability to rotate and recover laterally to set up the best defense in the tournament, scoring opportunities coming off every attack angle. Espiritu is probably only 6’3” in his sneakers, but his astounding springs and freakish athleticism allow him to play bigger than his size, maybe even bigger than most big guys. Lee is an underrated defender who has learned how to pressure his man and help on the UE trap while also leading his team in scoring. Llagas looks slow and plodding until he lays down some pivots and drop steps in the post.

FEU has all of that and more, but has inexplicably found the goings very tough in Round 2. In their loss against the Red Warriors in the second round, it was UE that imposed its will on the Tamaraws. UE ran faster, crashed the boards more, and got to the loose ball opportunities first. FEU seems to have lost its edge, and with the Final 4 now here, it will take some doing to regain it.

Their rebounding and their overall team defense are still first-rate, but FEU needs to figure out how to take better care of the ball, especially in the halfcourt. Ramos and Reil Cervantes have done a great job tending the boards, but their efforts have been wasted a lot in the second round when Barroca, Cawaling and Paul Sanga have taken bad shots and make bad decisions on offense.

This will be the real series, with the distinct and very real possibility that it will go two games. In the end, if they do not watch it, FEU might just find its title hopes suddenly dashed.

It says here it will likely be a Blue and Red Finals.